Question
Did Dean Koontz predict the COVID-19 outbreak?
Answer
No.
Explanation
During the novel coronavirus outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19), a screenshot of a page in Dean Koontz' 1981 novel The Eyes of Darkness was shared thousands of times on social media as it mentioned a deadly virus named Wuhan-400. COVID-19 started in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
This is where the similarities end.
- In the book, it does not mention the year. Some social media shares included a page which claimed to predict a virus outbreak in the year 2020, but this was not from a Dean Koontz book.
- In the book, the virus has an incubation period of four hours. The incubation period of COVID-19 is 1-14 days, most commonly around five days.
- In the book, the virus has a 100% mortality rate. The mortality rate of COVID-19 is around 3.4% (based on March 2020 data, this will likely be adjusted further).
- In the book, the virus is developed in a lab. COVID-19 originated at a food market in Wuhan, currently thought to have passed from an animal to humans (coronaviruses are common in animals). There is no evidence to suggest the virus could have had a synthetic origin.
- The book originally called the virus Gorki-400. This was changed to Wuhan-400 in the 1989 edition when the Cold War was coming to an end, a year before the Russian city of Gorky was renamed to Nizhny Novgorod.
Aside from the lack of similarities, it's worth considering that influenza-like viruses have caused recurring epidemics and will likely keep doing so in the future and that many books have included and will continue to include calamities such as epidemics. As a result, there's a good chance future epidemics will also appear to have been foreshadowed to some extent by some work of fiction.
Sources
Koontz, D.R., The Eyes of Darkness, (Pocket Books, 1989)
World Health Organization, 'Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19)', 2 March 2020, https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses, (accessed 8 March 2020)
World Health Organization, 'WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 3 March 2020', 3 March 2020, https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020, (accessed 8 March 2020)